Lively-Beech
Skill vs luck
Lively-Beech on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 17% (95% range 3%–56%) · profit +$266. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Lively-Beech: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x87a3456e3b5777b45d5a1be804df76c6b8ef5857. Data CC BY 4.0.
Lively-Beech: +$266 on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 17% (95% range 3%–56%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$3
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$270
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$1
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | SELL Team Spirit @ 99.9¢ | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Astra Invicta - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.1K |
| Sep 19 | SELL Aurora Gaming @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner ↗ | $1.0K |
| Sep 13 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 82¢
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner | $1.2K |
| Sep 12 | SELL Natus Vincere
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner | $1.4K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?