Fearful-Independence

0x8190816855b676a5efd8c5b344135a72337bb247

No settled bets on record yet: none of this wallet's $1,000+ bets since Aug 20 have resolved. Its record appears after the next daily update once they do.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.7% (2,007 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 16 SELL No @ 97¢
Macron out by December 31, 2026?
Macron out by December 31, 2026? $1.1K
Oct 16 BUY No @ 90¢ Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? ↗ $1.4K
Sep 28 SELL No @ 98¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? $1.8K
Sep 19 SELL No @ 95¢ Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? ↗ $1.3K

All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1792220425, computed 2026-10-17 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1792220425 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed