Narrow-Reflection
Skill vs luck
Narrow-Reflection on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 44%–100%) · profit +$9. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 31, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Narrow-Reflection: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 31, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x80e3d1d2d9f969591021845342244ff30d073fcb. Data CC BY 4.0.
Narrow-Reflection: +$9 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 44%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 3 – Sep 17
- +$7
- Oct 16 – Oct 31
- +$2
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | BUY Wizards @ 99.9¢ | Hornets vs. Wizards ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-10-22? |
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-10-22? | $1.1K |
| Sep 15 | BUY No
@ 99.4¢
Exact Score: Ipswich Town FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? |
Exact Score: Ipswich Town FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? | $1.1K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.