Perfumed-Blog-Clearing
Skill vs luck
Perfumed-Blog-Clearing on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 30%–95%) · profit −$188. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Perfumed-Blog-Clearing: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x806abb0e02f17fb904c37a93a41cac55eaf0b7da. Data CC BY 4.0.
Perfumed-Blog-Clearing: −$188 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 30%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$1.1K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$1.7K
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- −$3.8K
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$855
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY BetBoom Team @ 64¢ | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Nemiga - Map 2 Winner ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Team Falcons @ 42¢ | Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs ↗ | $3.8K |
| Sep 12 | SELL Colorado Rockies @ 60¢ | Colorado Rockies vs. Detroit Tigers ↗ | $1.7K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?