Hard-To-Find-Navigation
Skill vs luck
Hard-To-Find-Navigation on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$25K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Hard-To-Find-Navigation: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x7ee97269ec611c5b89edcce6fd97a88d6902aa69. Data CC BY 4.0.
Hard-To-Find-Navigation: +$25K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 19 – Nov 3
- +$25K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard @ 60¢ | Bratislava 2: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Sorger ↗ | $6.7K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard @ 59¢ | Bratislava 2: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Sorger ↗ | $4.0K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard @ 60¢ | Bratislava 2: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Sorger ↗ | $4.0K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard @ 61¢ | Bratislava 2: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Sorger ↗ | $19K |
| Oct 29 | BUY Brendan McDonald
@ 50¢
M15 Pembroke: Alvin Nicholas Tudorica vs Brendan McDonald |
M15 Pembroke: Alvin Nicholas Tudorica vs Brendan McDonald | $7.5K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Hikaru Sato
@ 62¢
W35 Sydney: Hikaru Sato vs I Wen Wan |
W35 Sydney: Hikaru Sato vs I Wen Wan | $5.9K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.