Courageous-Sunbonnet
Skill vs luck
Courageous-Sunbonnet on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 60% (95% range 23%–88%) · profit +$1.1K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Courageous-Sunbonnet: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x7ec7f01b53cdcbb966bee924c4b6222ad9172b6b. Data CC BY 4.0.
Courageous-Sunbonnet: +$1.1K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 23%–88%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- +$1.3K
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- −$1.3K
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- +$1.1K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild @ 57¢ | Santa Cruz 2: Francisco Comesana vs Thiago Seyboth Wild ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild @ 52¢ | Santa Cruz 2: Francisco Comesana vs Thiago Seyboth Wild ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 16 | SELL Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
@ 93¢
Lisbon: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Polona Hercog |
Lisbon: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Polona Hercog | $2.8K |
| Oct 16 | BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
@ 62¢
Lisbon: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Polona Hercog |
Lisbon: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Polona Hercog | $1.9K |
| Oct 11 | SELL
@ 92¢
Vikings vs. Saints AND Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-11? |
Vikings vs. Saints AND Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-11? | $1.1K |
| Sep 4 | BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild
@ 84¢
Como: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Pablo Varillas |
Como: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Pablo Varillas | $1.3K |
| Aug 23 | BUY Yes @ 66¢ | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-23? ↗ | $3.0K |
| Aug 22 | SELL Yes @ 85¢ | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-22? ↗ | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?