Ruddy-Blog
Skill vs luck
Ruddy-Blog on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$794. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Ruddy-Blog: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x7cd5b2a057968376826c74e8c378ee36c0472b75. Data CC BY 4.0.
Ruddy-Blog: +$794 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- +$794
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes @ 67¢ | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-17? ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes @ 89¢ | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-17? ↗ | $1.2K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?