Identical-Compliment-Criteria
Skill vs luck
Identical-Compliment-Criteria on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 60% (95% range 23%–88%) · profit +$623. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Identical-Compliment-Criteria: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x7b74c5bba193c6eaa508899ed1ad408e56599266. Data CC BY 4.0.
Identical-Compliment-Criteria: +$623 on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 23%–88%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- +$603
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$20
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Yes @ 99¢ | Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-24? ↗ | $2.2K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-24? ↗ | $2.2K |
| Oct 1 | SELL Team Liquid @ 99.5¢ | Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C ↗ | $2.5K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Team Liquid @ 83¢ | Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 1 | SELL MEIA NOITE
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - CCT South America Series 6 Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - CCT South America Series 6 Group Stage | $2.1K |
| Oct 1 | BUY MEIA NOITE
@ 90¢
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - CCT South America Series 6 Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - CCT South America Series 6 Group Stage | $1.9K |
| Sep 30 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will OL Lyonnes vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? |
Will OL Lyonnes vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? | $2.0K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?