Yummy-Orchard-Harm
Skill vs luck
Yummy-Orchard-Harm on Polymarket: 9 settled bets · won 44% (95% range 19%–73%) · profit +$329. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Yummy-Orchard-Harm: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x78d85066cc09e837c19b31f29374c8760829ce05. Data CC BY 4.0.
Yummy-Orchard-Harm: +$329 on 9 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 44% (95% range 19%–73%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 8 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- +$329
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | BUY Nebraska @ 37¢ | Nebraska vs. Oregon ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Vanderbilt
@ 74¢
Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt |
Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt | $2.0K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Under
@ 51¢
Washington vs. Purdue: O/U 71.5 |
Washington vs. Purdue: O/U 71.5 | $1.5K |
| Oct 17 | SELL Tulane
@ 99.9¢
Spread: Memphis (-6.5) |
Spread: Memphis (-6.5) | $3.3K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Coastal Carolina
@ 53¢
Spread: Appalachian State (-1.5) |
Spread: Appalachian State (-1.5) | $1.0K |
| Oct 14 | BUY Remy Bertola
@ 31¢
Roanne: Remy Bertola vs Otto Virtanen |
Roanne: Remy Bertola vs Otto Virtanen | $1.4K |
| Oct 12 | BUY Ravens @ 36¢ | Ravens vs. Falcons ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 12 | BUY Under
@ 51¢
Ravens vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5 |
Ravens vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5 | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?