Talkative-Stove-Wholesale
Skill vs luck
Talkative-Stove-Wholesale on Polymarket: 10 settled bets · won 70% (95% range 40%–89%) · profit +$1.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −6.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 20, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Talkative-Stove-Wholesale: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 20, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x77fe6c84a1847f85f9e1577816eefa751408a351. Data CC BY 4.0.
Talkative-Stove-Wholesale: +$1.4K on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 70% (95% range 40%–89%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$315
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- +$1.8K
- Sep 19 – Oct 4
- +$429
- Oct 4 – Oct 20
- −$473
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | BUY Yes @ 79¢ | Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-19? ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 19 | BUY Yes
@ 94¢
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-10-19? |
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-10-19? | $3.1K |
| Oct 15 | BUY Yes
@ 48¢
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? |
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? | $1.1K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes @ 76¢ | Will England win on 2026-10-03? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 2 | BUY No
@ 95¢
Will Türkiye win on 2026-10-02? |
Will Türkiye win on 2026-10-02? | $2.4K |
| Sep 19 | SELL No @ 99.9¢ | Will AS Roma win on 2026-09-19? ↗ | $5.8K |
| Sep 18 | BUY No @ 95¢ | Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-18? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Sep 14 | SELL Yes @ 67¢ | Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-09-14? ↗ | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?