Svelte-Controversy

0x77b61b96b30a36b885aa8280522a7cabf5e47fec

Skill vs luck

Svelte-Controversy on Polymarket: 16 settled bets · won 94% (95% range 72%–99%) · profit +$1.5K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Svelte-Controversy: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x77b61b96b30a36b885aa8280522a7cabf5e47fec. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Svelte-Controversy: +$1.5K on 16 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 94% (95% range 72%–99%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit

+$1.5K

return +3.2%

Settled bets

$47K staked

Won

93.8%

95% range 72%–99%

Mostly bets on

crypto

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 15 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Aug 20 – Sep 3: +$915
Sep 3 – Sep 18: +$86
Sep 18 – Oct 3: +$172
Oct 3 – Oct 18: +$182
Oct 18 – Nov 2: +$151

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +2.2% (2,625 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 31	BUY Oilers @ 99.7¢ Oilers vs. Islanders	Oilers vs. Islanders ↗	$4.2K
Oct 30	BUY No @ 99.48¢ Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 30?	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 30?	$2.7K
Oct 28	BUY Yes @ 95¢ Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗	$2.3K
Oct 16	BUY Yes @ 99¢ Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 17?	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 17?	$1.7K
Oct 16	BUY Yes @ 98¢ Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 17?	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 17?	$2.0K
Oct 14	BUY No @ 98¢ Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 14?	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 14?	$3.4K
Oct 10	BUY No @ 99.66¢ Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 10?	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 10?	$5.2K
Oct 5	BUY No @ 99.5¢ Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 5?	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 5?	$7.1K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793602824, computed 2026-11-02 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1793602824 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed