Windy-Academics
Skill vs luck
Windy-Academics on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 61%–100%) · profit +$16. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −6.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 20, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Windy-Academics: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 20, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x76e9742c7c35bdc87fdf8d5547727c93c32b094b. Data CC BY 4.0.
Windy-Academics: +$16 on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 61%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- +$4
- Sep 19 – Oct 4
- +$5
- Oct 4 – Oct 20
- +$6
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 19? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 12 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 12? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 12? | $1.1K |
| Oct 8 | BUY No
@ 99.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 9? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 9? | $1.1K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 1? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 1? | $1.0K |
| Sep 24 | BUY No
@ 99.6¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on September 24? |
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on September 24? | $1.0K |
| Sep 19 | BUY No
@ 99.6¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 19? |
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 19? | $1.0K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?