Ill-Fated-Checkroom
Skill vs luck
Ill-Fated-Checkroom on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 80% (95% range 38%–96%) · profit +$3.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Ill-Fated-Checkroom: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x7537389063abc2605c5adf94f65457876591bee1. Data CC BY 4.0.
Ill-Fated-Checkroom: +$3.5K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 80% (95% range 38%–96%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$1.9K
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$1.6K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 69¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Astra Invicta - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Astra Invicta - Game 2 Winner | $1.9K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Team Spirit @ 65¢ | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Astra Invicta - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 25 | SELL OG @ 99.9¢ | Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A ↗ | $1.6K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?