Superficial-Terminology
Skill vs luck
Superficial-Terminology on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 17% (95% range 3%–56%) · profit −$169. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Superficial-Terminology: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x750c8c8e8cdb54208e520895775765235e66d430. Data CC BY 4.0.
Superficial-Terminology: −$169 on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 17% (95% range 3%–56%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 21 – Oct 7
- −$2
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- −$167
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | SELL Pistons @ 99.9¢ | Pistons vs. Heat ↗ | $2.4K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Dplus KIA @ 61¢ | LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 23 | SELL Thunder @ 99.9¢ | Nuggets vs. Thunder ↗ | $2.2K |
| Oct 17 | SELL Hawks
@ 99.9¢
Hawks vs. Mavericks |
Hawks vs. Mavericks | $3.5K |
| Oct 16 | BUY Karmine Corp @ 84¢ | LoL: MVK Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Worlds Play-In ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 6 | SELL PARIVISION @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage ↗ | $1.9K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?