Caring-Kingfish

0x6fc44ec445d73c635ae9029cdaff52f8eb62c89d

Skill vs luck

Caring-Kingfish on Polymarket: 18 settled bets · won 94% (95% range 74%–99%) · profit +$360. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.

Post on X Telegram WhatsApp Email

Cite: Hopium Games, “Caring-Kingfish: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x6fc44ec445d73c635ae9029cdaff52f8eb62c89d. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Caring-Kingfish: +$360 on 18 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 94% (95% range 74%–99%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit

+$360

return +0.9%

Settled bets

$43K staked

Won

94.4%

95% range 74%–99%

Mostly bets on

crypto

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 18 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Aug 20 – Sep 5: +$1.0K
Sep 5 – Sep 21: +$137
Sep 21 – Oct 7: −$923
Oct 7 – Oct 24: +$105

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −11.2% (2,187 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 23	BUY Up @ 98¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET ↗	$2.9K
Oct 14	BUY Up @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	$4.5K
Oct 3	BUY Down @ 98¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	$5.1K
Sep 24	BUY Down @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	$1.2K
Sep 21	BUY Down @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	$2.0K
Sep 21	BUY Down @ 93¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	$2.5K
Sep 18	BUY Down @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	$2.2K
Sep 18	BUY Down @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	$3.6K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792825211, computed 2026-10-24 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792825211 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed