Spiffy-Lobster
Skill vs luck
Spiffy-Lobster on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$1.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Spiffy-Lobster: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x6e38fffdd00c2ee2db56babad881147c161ce151. Data CC BY 4.0.
Spiffy-Lobster: +$1.2K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$1.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | SELL
@ 99.83¢
UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card) AND UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) |
UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card) AND UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card) | $1.2K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Alexander Volkanovski @ 99.9¢ | UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card) ↗ | $2.4K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Alexander Volkanovski @ 49¢ | UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card) ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Abubakar Vagaev
@ 99.9¢
UFC 333: Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, Early Prelims) |
UFC 333: Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, Early Prelims) | $1.7K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?