Smug-Block
Skill vs luck
Smug-Block on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–56%) · profit −$769. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 22, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Smug-Block: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 22, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x6dd9b2a9559fafebc3fa0bf860b56ca3a56fbfe8. Data CC BY 4.0.
Smug-Block: −$769 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–56%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 20 – Oct 6
- −$702
- Oct 6 – Oct 22
- −$67
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | SELL Jets @ 95¢ | Browns vs. Jets ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 4 | SELL Chiefs @ 98¢ | Chiefs vs. Raiders ↗ | $2.1K |
| Oct 2 | SELL Browns @ 70¢ | Steelers vs. Browns ↗ | $1.5K |
| Sep 12 | SELL No @ 89¢ | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? ↗ | $2.2K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?