Rewarding-Polarisation
Skill vs luck
Rewarding-Polarisation on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 60% (95% range 23%–88%) · profit −$1.1K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Rewarding-Polarisation: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x6d3d44cfa03a9175c701bfb2d3863612ecf151b8. Data CC BY 4.0.
Rewarding-Polarisation: −$1.1K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 23%–88%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- +$668
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- +$413
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$2.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Astra Invicta @ 66¢ | Dota 2: Astra Invicta vs LEGION (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Team Liquid @ 63¢ | Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 3 | BUY MOUZ
@ 74¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs M80 - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs M80 - Map 1 Winner | $1.2K |
| Sep 12 | BUY LOS
@ 86¢
LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs |
LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs | $1.5K |
| Sep 8 | BUY FURIA @ 73¢ | Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner ↗ | $1.2K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?