Sparkling-Flair
Skill vs luck
Sparkling-Flair on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 88% (95% range 53%–98%) · profit −$3.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 31, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Sparkling-Flair: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 31, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x6ced9b9b81b36876086a49b734f7963e7031c05b. Data CC BY 4.0.
Sparkling-Flair: −$3.5K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 88% (95% range 53%–98%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 8 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 2 – Oct 16
- +$55
- Oct 16 – Oct 31
- −$3.6K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC @ 98¢ | Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5) ↗ | $6.0K |
| Oct 29 | BUY Naomi Osaka
@ 90¢
Set Handicap: Mia Pohankova (-1.5) vs Naomi Osaka (+1.5) |
Set Handicap: Mia Pohankova (-1.5) vs Naomi Osaka (+1.5) | $4.0K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Brighton & Hove Albion FC
@ 97¢
Spread: Liverpool FC (-3.5) |
Spread: Liverpool FC (-3.5) | $2.0K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Leeds United FC
@ 96¢
Spread: Sunderland AFC (-2.5) |
Spread: Sunderland AFC (-2.5) | $2.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Manchester City FC
@ 98¢
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5) |
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5) | $3.0K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Ipswich Town FC
@ 98¢
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-3.5) |
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-3.5) | $2.0K |
| Oct 22 | BUY FC København
@ 98¢
Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-3.5) |
Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-3.5) | $2.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY BV Borussia 09 Dortmund
@ 99.41¢
Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-2.5) |
Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-2.5) | $9.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.