Foolhardy-Native-Youth
Skill vs luck
Foolhardy-Native-Youth on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 29% (95% range 8%–64%) · profit −$6.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Foolhardy-Native-Youth: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x6bc742cc8c377ae2e323700fb9eabb9fede7c4a9. Data CC BY 4.0.
Foolhardy-Native-Youth: −$6.2K on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 29% (95% range 8%–64%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- −$6.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes @ 69¢ | Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-10-17? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 17 | SELL Team WE @ 54¢ | LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Over
@ 45¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 48.5 |
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 48.5 | $1.5K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 68¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 46.5 |
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 46.5 | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 64¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 47.5 |
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 47.5 | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 68¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 46.5 |
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 46.5 | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 86¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 41.5 |
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 41.5 | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 60¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 48.5 |
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 48.5 | $1.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?