Joyful-Catastrophe

0x6a7447d219a409806db7b49cdaca57534395ae4b

Skill vs luck

Joyful-Catastrophe on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 14% (95% range 3%–51%) · profit +$199. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Joyful-Catastrophe: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x6a7447d219a409806db7b49cdaca57534395ae4b. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Joyful-Catastrophe: +$199 on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 14% (95% range 3%–51%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

+$199

return +7.7%

Settled bets

$2.6K staked

Won

14.3%

95% range 3%–51%

Mostly bets on

other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Oct 3 – Oct 18: +$199

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −8.2% (2,088 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 18	SELL No @ 89¢ Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2026-10-18?	Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2026-10-18?	$2.8K
Oct 17	SELL Down @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	$1.8K
Oct 17	SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-17?	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-17? ↗	$3.0K
Oct 17	BUY No @ 92¢ Will Alanyaspor win on 2026-10-17?	Will Alanyaspor win on 2026-10-17?	$2.6K
Oct 17	SELL Up @ 99.9¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	$1.0K
Oct 17	SELL Down @ 99.9¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	$1.0K
Oct 17	SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ Will Auckland FC win on 2026-10-17?	Will Auckland FC win on 2026-10-17?	$1.0K
Oct 17	SELL No @ 99.9¢ Will Club Puebla win on 2026-10-16?	Will Club Puebla win on 2026-10-16?	$1.4K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792306820, computed 2026-10-18 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792306820 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed