Intentional-Probability
Skill vs luck
Intentional-Probability on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$828. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Intentional-Probability: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x689acb7be2fa2005e3d5eddd4c495dba1e87ab74. Data CC BY 4.0.
Intentional-Probability: −$828 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- −$125
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$703
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY FURIA @ 58¢ | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 16 | BUY Cloud9 @ 72¢ | LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Worlds Play-In ↗ | $1.5K |
| Aug 28 | SELL Spirit
@ 92¢
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner | $1.5K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?