Unnatural-Manor
Skill vs luck
Unnatural-Manor on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 40% (95% range 12%–77%) · profit +$796. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 31, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Unnatural-Manor: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 31, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x62be842529357da0980375cdb82ac8ff2b5a444c. Data CC BY 4.0.
Unnatural-Manor: +$796 on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 12%–77%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 3 – Sep 17
- +$799
- Oct 2 – Oct 16
- −$2
- Oct 16 – Oct 31
- −$1
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | SELL FURIA @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 8 | SELL Team Vitality
@ 99.9¢
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 1 Winner |
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 1 Winner | $1.5K |
| Sep 13 | SELL Gen.G @ 99.9¢ | LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $2.4K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Anyones Legend @ 78¢ | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs ↗ | $2.0K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 90¢ | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Playoffs ↗ | $2.2K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.