Rewarding-Gnat-Bird
Skill vs luck
Rewarding-Gnat-Bird on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$477. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Rewarding-Gnat-Bird: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x61f8011980f247b3017191a19647f49fcf2c98e6. Data CC BY 4.0.
Rewarding-Gnat-Bird: +$477 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 17 – Nov 1
- +$477
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 81¢ | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 25 | SELL Gen.G @ 90¢ | LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $2.7K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Gen.G @ 92¢ | LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $4.0K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.