Posh-Pollution
Skill vs luck
Posh-Pollution on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$3.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Posh-Pollution: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x61e0cb043c88e34d1502139a682c75d286284b62. Data CC BY 4.0.
Posh-Pollution: −$3.2K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- −$3.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | BUY Knicks @ 45¢ | Knicks vs. Celtics ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 16 | BUY Rockets
@ 81¢
Thunder vs. Rockets |
Thunder vs. Rockets | $1.1K |
| Oct 14 | BUY Yes @ 48¢ | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14? ↗ | $2.0K |
| Sep 22 | BUY Yes @ 50¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.5K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?