Shimmering-Poetry-Sprinter

0x61b4821b303a21d505f9523641ec005e54f9e1b3

Skill vs luck

Shimmering-Poetry-Sprinter on Polymarket: 18 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 29%–71%) · profit +$9.9K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Shimmering-Poetry-Sprinter: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x61b4821b303a21d505f9523641ec005e54f9e1b3. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Shimmering-Poetry-Sprinter: +$9.9K on 18 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 29%–71%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

+$9.9K

return +28.9%

Settled bets

$34K staked

Won

50.0%

95% range 29%–71%

Mostly bets on

esports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 7 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Oct 8 – Oct 25: +$9.9K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −8.9% (2,417 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 23	SELL PARIVISION @ 99.9¢ Dota 2: PARIVISION vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner	$5.4K
Oct 23	SELL Inner Circle @ 99.9¢ Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner	Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner	$4.7K
Oct 23	SELL GamerLegion @ 99.9¢ Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner ↗	$10K
Oct 23	BUY GamerLegion @ 42¢ Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner ↗	$2.1K
Oct 23	BUY Team Liquid @ 67¢ Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner ↗	$2.0K
Oct 23	SELL Nemiga Gaming @ 99.9¢ Dota 2: salamit vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Dota 2: salamit vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner	$5.8K
Oct 23	BUY Team Liquid @ 68¢ Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner ↗	$1.2K
Oct 23	SELL OG @ 99.9¢ Dota 2: 1win vs OG - Game 2 Winner	Dota 2: 1win vs OG - Game 2 Winner ↗	$13K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792911646, computed 2026-10-25 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792911646 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed