Salty-Derivative-Stench
Skill vs luck
Salty-Derivative-Stench on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 38% (95% range 14%–69%) · profit +$467. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Salty-Derivative-Stench: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x6196f808af9b0cd941606f0a531201beb9dc8297. Data CC BY 4.0.
Salty-Derivative-Stench: +$467 on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 38% (95% range 14%–69%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- +$467
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY 100 Thieves @ 52¢ | Counter-Strike: Heroic vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Playoffs ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 17 | BUY MIBR
@ 74¢
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner | $2.9K |
| Oct 16 | SELL 100 Thieves @ 99.9¢ | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs ↗ | $2.2K |
| Oct 13 | SELL Liquid
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner | $4.5K |
| Oct 13 | BUY BBL
@ 63¢
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs BBL - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs BBL - Map 1 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 10 | SELL LOUD
@ 99.9¢
Valorant: NRG vs LOUD - Map 1 Winner |
Valorant: NRG vs LOUD - Map 1 Winner | $2.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY FURIA @ 41¢ | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | SELL
@ 54¢
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs AND Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs AND Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs |
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs AND Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs AND Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | $2.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?