Shocked-Model-Curve

0x5f3922e6c40d6af33405e2adc1023112791795c2

Skill vs luck

Shocked-Model-Curve on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$1.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 30, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Shocked-Model-Curve: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 30, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x5f3922e6c40d6af33405e2adc1023112791795c2. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Shocked-Model-Curve: −$1.4K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$1.4K
return −100.0%
Settled bets
1
$1.4K staked
Won
0.0%
95% range 0%–79%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Oct 16 – Oct 30
−$1.4K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +3.5% (2,471 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 28 BUY Liquid @ 40¢
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner
 Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner ↗ $1.4K

All 1 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793343609, computed 2026-10-30 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1793343609 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed