Embarrassed-Root
Skill vs luck
Embarrassed-Root on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$78. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Embarrassed-Root: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x5f2d64a75faa9e08534f1f1e60bfb4aee82c0d42. Data CC BY 4.0.
Embarrassed-Root: +$78 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$78
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY Yes @ 64¢ | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $5.0K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Yes @ 51¢ | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $4.5K |
| Oct 23 | BUY No @ 83¢ | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $5.5K |
| Oct 17 | BUY No @ 52¢ | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 16 | SELL No @ 48¢ | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? ↗ | $3.8K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Yes @ 91¢ | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? ↗ | $3.5K |
| Sep 20 | SELL Yes @ 85¢ | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? ↗ | $3.5K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Yes @ 81¢ | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? ↗ | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?