Basic-Specialty-Reveal
Skill vs luck
Basic-Specialty-Reveal on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 10%–70%) · profit −$2.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −6.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 20, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Basic-Specialty-Reveal: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 20, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x5dc46a0a9ec91846558f2681cc763afac8420257. Data CC BY 4.0.
Basic-Specialty-Reveal: −$2.3K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 10%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 19 – Oct 4
- +$818
- Oct 4 – Oct 20
- −$3.1K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | BUY PARIVISION @ 59¢ | Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs magic (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2 Playoffs ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 19 | BUY Liquid
@ 57¢
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Liquid (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2 Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Liquid (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2 Playoffs | $1.5K |
| Oct 16 | BUY 9z
@ 60¢
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) | $1.2K |
| Oct 10 | SELL THE UNIT
@ 75¢
Counter-Strike: THE UNIT vs Chinggis Warriors - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: THE UNIT vs Chinggis Warriors - Map 2 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Under
@ 58¢
Galatasaray SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: O/U 3.5 |
Galatasaray SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: O/U 3.5 | $1.0K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Under
@ 69¢
Netherlands vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5 |
Netherlands vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5 | $1.8K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?