Heavy-Hemisphere-Insurrection
Skill vs luck
Heavy-Hemisphere-Insurrection on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$16K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 21, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Heavy-Hemisphere-Insurrection: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 21, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x5cf0f41c26e4a02023ca5a57612fc6210e583d38. Data CC BY 4.0.
Heavy-Hemisphere-Insurrection: −$16K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 5 – Oct 21
- −$16K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | BUY No @ 16¢ | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-20? ↗ | $5.8K |
| Oct 20 | BUY No @ 16¢ | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-20? ↗ | $10K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?