Prickly-Today
Skill vs luck
Prickly-Today on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 63% (95% range 31%–86%) · profit +$9.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 22, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Prickly-Today: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 22, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x5c89768e750ef8baecad3307aa8a8333e65589e8. Data CC BY 4.0.
Prickly-Today: +$9.8K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 63% (95% range 31%–86%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 7 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$2.9K
- Sep 20 – Oct 6
- −$385
- Oct 6 – Oct 22
- +$7.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | BUY New Mexico State @ 59¢ | New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston ↗ | $5.9K |
| Oct 22 | BUY New Mexico State @ 59¢ | New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston ↗ | $5.9K |
| Oct 21 | BUY New Mexico State @ 60¢ | New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston ↗ | $4.8K |
| Oct 20 | SELL Commanders @ 22¢ | Commanders vs. 49ers ↗ | $2.8K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Louisville
@ 60¢
Florida State vs. Louisville: 1H Moneyline |
Florida State vs. Louisville: 1H Moneyline | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Louisville
@ 60¢
Florida State vs. Louisville: 1H Moneyline |
Florida State vs. Louisville: 1H Moneyline | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Arkansas State
@ 54¢
Spread: South Alabama (-7.5) |
Spread: South Alabama (-7.5) | $3.3K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Arkansas State
@ 52¢
Spread: South Alabama (-3.5) |
Spread: South Alabama (-3.5) | $1.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?