Exemplary-Cloud
Skill vs luck
Exemplary-Cloud on Polymarket: 9 settled bets · won 44% (95% range 19%–73%) · profit −$4.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Exemplary-Cloud: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x5b45946c1ddec3ecd71a1ebcfca283af9967362b. Data CC BY 4.0.
Exemplary-Cloud: −$4.3K on 9 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 44% (95% range 19%–73%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 9 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- −$240
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- −$1.3K
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- +$528
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$3.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | BUY Kings @ 53¢ | Bruins vs. Kings ↗ | $2.1K |
| Oct 14 | BUY No @ 53¢ | Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-14? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Over
@ 84¢
Belgium vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 |
Belgium vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 | $2.8K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Detroit Tigers
@ 99.9¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers |
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers | $1.7K |
| Sep 15 | BUY Toronto Blue Jays @ 43¢ | Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays ↗ | $1.3K |
| Sep 3 | BUY BNK FEARX
@ 54¢
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner |
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner | $1.6K |
| Sep 2 | BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 56¢ | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner ↗ | $1.7K |
| Aug 23 | BUY Spirit @ 58¢ | Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs ↗ | $1.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?