Definite-Archer
Skill vs luck
Definite-Archer on Polymarket: 9 settled bets · won 44% (95% range 19%–73%) · profit +$39K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Definite-Archer: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x5ad7346a9f6b4a1ad852ec8e0716d446527cae48. Data CC BY 4.0.
Definite-Archer: +$39K on 9 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 44% (95% range 19%–73%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 9 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- −$3.0K
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- +$33K
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- +$8.8K
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- −$222
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BUY Team Yandex @ 57¢ | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Team Spirit @ 73¢ | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 84¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs | $4.7K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Yes
@ 56¢
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix? |
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix? | $11K |
| Sep 9 | BUY Ben Shelton @ 39¢ | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz ↗ | $5.6K |
| Sep 9 | BUY Ben Shelton @ 38¢ | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz ↗ | $3.0K |
| Sep 9 | BUY Ben Shelton @ 40¢ | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz ↗ | $6.5K |
| Sep 9 | BUY Ben Shelton @ 61¢ | US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz ↗ | $5.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.