Prudent-Punishment-Incubation
Skill vs luck
Prudent-Punishment-Incubation on Polymarket: 25 settled bets · won 96% (95% range 81%–99%) · profit −$329. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −6.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 20, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Prudent-Punishment-Incubation: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 20, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x58f943c62336082b66d60c8d552b1b5d500138a7. Data CC BY 4.0.
Prudent-Punishment-Incubation: −$329 on 25 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 96% (95% range 81%–99%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 23 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$367
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- +$14
- Sep 19 – Oct 4
- +$2
- Oct 4 – Oct 20
- +$23
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 19? ↗ | $8.0K |
| Oct 16 | SELL No
@ 99¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October? | $3.0K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 99.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 5? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 5? | $5.0K |
| Sep 27 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 September 21-27? |
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 September 21-27? | $1.9K |
| Sep 15 | BUY No
@ 99.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 16? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 16? | $3.1K |
| Sep 15 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 15? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 15? | $2.3K |
| Sep 15 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 15? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 15? | $2.1K |
| Sep 2 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 19°C on September 3? |
Will the highest temperature in Jinan be 19°C on September 3? | $1.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?