Gracious-Childbirth
Skill vs luck
Gracious-Childbirth on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 57% (95% range 25%–84%) · profit +$5.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Gracious-Childbirth: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x58e40b59c4aa9843f7de8caa58c802ee0e3273f9. Data CC BY 4.0.
Gracious-Childbirth: +$5.3K on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 57% (95% range 25%–84%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- +$1.9K
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$3.4K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes
@ 65¢
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw? |
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw? | $1.1K |
| Oct 25 | SELL Texas @ 99.9¢ | Ole Miss vs. Texas ↗ | $5.7K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Adolfo Vallejo
@ 35¢
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego |
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego | $2.0K |
| Oct 23 | BUY 76ers @ 45¢ | Cavaliers vs. 76ers ↗ | $3.4K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Yes
@ 50¢
Will AFC Ajax vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? |
Will AFC Ajax vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? | $1.5K |
| Oct 17 | BUY No
@ 70¢
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-10-17? |
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-10-17? | $3.9K |
| Oct 14 | BUY No @ 49¢ | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Sep 13 | BUY Yes
@ 42¢
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? |
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? | $1.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?