Ill-Informed-Glasses-Patriot
Skill vs luck
Ill-Informed-Glasses-Patriot on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 30%–95%) · profit −$444. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Ill-Informed-Glasses-Patriot: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x5592d3300386bcb71db9cb7df7fcda43e236aede. Data CC BY 4.0.
Ill-Informed-Glasses-Patriot: −$444 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 30%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$1.6K
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- +$605
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$562
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | BUY Spirit @ 64¢ | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora Gaming
@ 69¢
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 1WIN (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 1WIN (+1.5) | $1.3K |
| Sep 8 | BUY Legacy
@ 78¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs magic - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs magic - Map 2 Winner | $2.4K |
| Sep 6 | BUY Spirit
@ 76¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner | $2.4K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?