Medical-Manifestation
Skill vs luck
Medical-Manifestation on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$665. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Medical-Manifestation: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x524566fe72a4768c73a2c5df2ed85acb024c313f. Data CC BY 4.0.
Medical-Manifestation: +$665 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$665
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | BUY Tommy Paul @ 60¢ | Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 20 | SELL Corentin Moutet
@ 99.9¢
Lyon Open: Ugo Humbert vs Corentin Moutet |
Lyon Open: Ugo Humbert vs Corentin Moutet | $1.3K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?