Spotless-Measles
Skill vs luck
Spotless-Measles on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 25% (95% range 5%–70%) · profit −$3.1K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Spotless-Measles: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x504599eba03234dfb8f4af7428454443b8cb914a. Data CC BY 4.0.
Spotless-Measles: −$3.1K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 5%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$1.9K
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- −$1.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | BUY Team Falcons @ 55¢ | Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs ↗ | $1.3K |
| Aug 22 | SELL Team Spirit @ 99.9¢ | Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs ↗ | $1.8K |
| Aug 22 | BUY Team Spirit @ 70¢ | Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs ↗ | $2.7K |
| Aug 22 | BUY Team Liquid @ 38¢ | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs ↗ | $1.3K |
| Aug 20 | BUY Team Falcons @ 56¢ | Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs ↗ | $1.7K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?