Celebrated-Isogloss-Citizenship
Skill vs luck
Celebrated-Isogloss-Citizenship on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–66%) · profit −$12K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Celebrated-Isogloss-Citizenship: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x4f53058cc60f2a4bcdfe5670b2da90196e1367d3. Data CC BY 4.0.
Celebrated-Isogloss-Citizenship: −$12K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–66%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- −$12K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | BUY Daniele Rapagnetta @ 30¢ | Florence: Dmitry Popko vs Daniele Rapagnetta ↗ | $6.5K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Daniele Rapagnetta @ 18¢ | Florence: Dmitry Popko vs Daniele Rapagnetta ↗ | $5.1K |
| Oct 11 | SELL Jakub Mensik @ 99.9¢ | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Jakub Mensik ↗ | $132K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?