Humble-Pecan
Skill vs luck
Humble-Pecan on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$849. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 23, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Humble-Pecan: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x4d70984ff9a047d283888fceb207df3e76782698. Data CC BY 4.0.
Humble-Pecan: +$849 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 5
- −$6
- Sep 5 – Sep 21
- +$855
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | BUY Yes @ 94¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? ↗ | $6.0K |
| Sep 11 | BUY Up
@ 54¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8AM ET | $1.0K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?