Ugly-Reputation-Wellbeing
Skill vs luck
Ugly-Reputation-Wellbeing on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 40% (95% range 12%–77%) · profit +$597. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Ugly-Reputation-Wellbeing: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x4c2f0b9b79ede25a8a789bc0c44a9595082b7330. Data CC BY 4.0.
Ugly-Reputation-Wellbeing: +$597 on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 12%–77%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 17 – Nov 1
- +$597
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | Will FC Bayern München vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 31 | SELL Yes @ 70¢ | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-31? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Yes @ 74¢ | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-31? ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Yes @ 73¢ | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-30? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Yes
@ 87¢
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-10-30? |
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-10-30? | $2.0K |
| Oct 28 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-28? |
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-28? | $1.1K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.