Automatic-Jar
Skill vs luck
Automatic-Jar on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 83% (95% range 44%–97%) · profit +$1.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 23, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Automatic-Jar: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x4a3beb266c0240f41a2e9f298eac472044512eb3. Data CC BY 4.0.
Automatic-Jar: +$1.8K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 83% (95% range 44%–97%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 5
- +$1.7K
- Sep 5 – Sep 21
- −$505
- Oct 7 – Oct 23
- +$595
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | BUY No @ 63¢ | Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? ↗ | $15K |
| Oct 12 | SELL Yes @ 12¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 12 | BUY Yes
@ 63¢
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? |
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | $1.0K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Yes @ 14¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Yes
@ 72¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? |
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | $1.0K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Miami (FL)
@ 92¢
Miami (FL) vs. Wake Forest |
Miami (FL) vs. Wake Forest | $1.3K |
| Sep 14 | BUY No @ 80¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.6K |
| Sep 8 | BUY Yes @ 58¢ | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? ↗ | $1.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?