Warlike-Fallingout

0x48ac40fc545cf327edd5365435c3a9f385614a7e

Skill vs luck

Warlike-Fallingout on Polymarket: 1,561 settled bets · won 97% (95% range 96%–98%) · profit −$78K. Skill vs luck: better than luck, though 1 in 40 wallets do this by chance alone. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Warlike-Fallingout: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x48ac40fc545cf327edd5365435c3a9f385614a7e. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Beat the odds* Check it on Polymarket ↗

Warlike-Fallingout: −$78K on 1,561 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 97% (95% range 96%–98%). Skill or luck: beat the odds (1 in 40 wallets do this by luck alone).

Profit

−$78K

return −2.3%

Settled bets

1,561

$3.42M staked

Won

96.8%

95% range 96%–98%

Mostly bets on

crypto

Skill or luck? Beat the odds (1 in 40 wallets do this by luck alone). We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1,561 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Aug 20 – Sep 5: −$18K
Sep 5 – Sep 21: −$25K
Sep 21 – Oct 7: −$35K
Oct 7 – Oct 24: −$433

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −11.2% (2,187 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 24	BUY Down @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	$2.0K
Oct 23	BUY Up @ 98¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET ↗	$3.4K
Oct 23	BUY Up @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	$1.4K
Oct 22	BUY Down @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	$2.2K
Oct 22	BUY Down @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	$1.2K
Oct 22	BUY Down @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	$2.8K
Oct 22	BUY Down @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1AM ET	$1.1K
Oct 22	BUY Up @ 99¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	$2.3K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792825211, computed 2026-10-24 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792825211 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed