Giving-Overexertion-Volume
Skill vs luck
Giving-Overexertion-Volume on Polymarket: 10 settled bets · won 60% (95% range 31%–83%) · profit +$7.9K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Giving-Overexertion-Volume: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x4600e523a1db0384052d8b94fa0ec19a9a576da4. Data CC BY 4.0.
Giving-Overexertion-Volume: +$7.9K on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 31%–83%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- −$790
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$8.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Under @ 55¢ | FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 ↗ | $4.3K |
| Oct 23 | BUY VfB Stuttgart
@ 52¢
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5) |
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5) | $2.5K |
| Oct 19 | BUY Maple Leafs
@ 55¢
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs |
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs | $1.5K |
| Oct 16 | BUY Under
@ 48¢
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5 |
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5 | $3.9K |
| Oct 14 | BUY Over
@ 46¢
Manchester City FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5 |
Manchester City FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | $1.8K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Casper Ruud
@ 50¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yunchaokete Bu vs Casper Ruud |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yunchaokete Bu vs Casper Ruud | $1.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Jets
@ 53¢
Ducks vs. Jets |
Ducks vs. Jets | $2.6K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 50¢
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5 |
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5 | $3.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?