Fresh-Rugby-Motor
Skill vs luck
Fresh-Rugby-Motor on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit +$3.5K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Fresh-Rugby-Motor: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x456d7e6a09f41b2ba90c966d5adc8e144825adf4. Data CC BY 4.0.
Fresh-Rugby-Motor: +$3.5K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$1
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$3.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | SELL LYON @ 72¢ | LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $2.5K |
| Oct 24 | SELL LYON @ 67¢ | LoL: LYON vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY LYON @ 24¢ | LoL: LYON vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $1.6K |
| Sep 5 | SELL Hanwha Life Esports @ 99.9¢ | LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.4K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?