Trusty-Downtown

0x4502bb5e2d93ce227dff6067b46ac99842ce9eed

Skill vs luck

Trusty-Downtown on Polymarket: 9 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 12%–65%) · profit −$50. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Trusty-Downtown: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x4502bb5e2d93ce227dff6067b46ac99842ce9eed. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Trusty-Downtown: −$50 on 9 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 12%–65%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$50
return −0.9%
Settled bets
9
$5.5K staked
Won
33.3%
95% range 12%–65%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$3
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$111
Sep 23 – Oct 10
+$55
Oct 10 – Oct 27
+$9
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.4% (2,295 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 26 SELL Under @ 99.9¢
CD Santa Clara vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5
 CD Santa Clara vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5 $1.4K
Oct 26 BUY Under @ 61¢
Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5
 Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5 ↗ $1.3K
Oct 26 BUY Over @ 54¢
Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5
 Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5 ↗ $1.6K
Oct 11 SELL Under @ 99.9¢
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: O/U 5.5
 Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: O/U 5.5 $1.2K
Oct 3 BUY Under @ 96¢
Finland vs. Albania: O/U 3.5
 Finland vs. Albania: O/U 3.5 $1.3K
Sep 15 SELL Under @ 99.9¢
Al Ain FC vs. Al Nassr Club: O/U 4.5
 Al Ain FC vs. Al Nassr Club: O/U 4.5 $2.2K
Sep 15 BUY Under @ 96¢
Al Ain FC vs. Al Nassr Club: O/U 4.5
 Al Ain FC vs. Al Nassr Club: O/U 4.5 $1.3K
Sep 11 SELL Under @ 99¢
Sevilla FC vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5
 Sevilla FC vs. Valencia CF: O/U 1.5 $1.4K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1793084411, computed 2026-10-27 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1793084411 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed