Unwelcome-Rancher-Octagon
Skill vs luck
Unwelcome-Rancher-Octagon on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 19%–81%) · profit −$3.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Unwelcome-Rancher-Octagon: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x43fb6f3ba7b88d2779f4269840d9bd33e37b33cb. Data CC BY 4.0.
Unwelcome-Rancher-Octagon: −$3.0K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 19%–81%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$3.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY Texas @ 80¢ | Florida vs. Texas ↗ | $3.0K |
| Oct 15 | BUY Broncos
@ 88¢
Spread: Seahawks (-16.5) |
Spread: Seahawks (-16.5) | $1.5K |
| Oct 12 | BUY Ravens @ 78¢ | Ravens vs. Falcons ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 11 | SELL Dolphins
@ 99.9¢
Spread: Bengals (-14.5) |
Spread: Bengals (-14.5) | $3.4K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Titans
@ 64¢
Spread: Texans (-10.5) |
Spread: Texans (-10.5) | $1.0K |
| Oct 10 | BUY USC
@ 81¢
Spread: Penn State (-10.5) |
Spread: Penn State (-10.5) | $1.1K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?