Rotating-Beard
Skill vs luck
Rotating-Beard on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–56%) · profit −$1.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Rotating-Beard: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x4192f797c73badf8c28e0f0bef8ed2b36b987f00. Data CC BY 4.0.
Rotating-Beard: −$1.7K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–56%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$1.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | SELL UCF @ 99.9¢ | BYU vs. UCF ↗ | $9.1K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Kansas @ 99.9¢ | Baylor vs. Kansas ↗ | $3.5K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Michigan @ 28¢ | Indiana vs. Michigan ↗ | $1.6K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?