Watchful-Headache
Skill vs luck
Watchful-Headache on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 30%–90%) · profit +$487. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Watchful-Headache: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x3fe280b528c2014a13e1d3b9b162f8ab921293b3. Data CC BY 4.0.
Watchful-Headache: +$487 on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 30%–90%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- +$487
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | BUY FURIA @ 62¢ | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO5) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs ↗ | $2.7K |
| Oct 18 | BUY FURIA @ 58¢ | Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) ↗ | $8.9K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Aurora Gaming @ 63¢ | Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs ↗ | $5.8K |
| Oct 18 | BUY LOUD
@ 53¢
Valorant: LOUD vs Team Vitality - Map 4 Winner |
Valorant: LOUD vs Team Vitality - Map 4 Winner | $3.1K |
| Oct 18 | SELL Team Vitality @ 28¢ | Valorant: LOUD vs Team Vitality (BO5) - VCT Champions Playoffs ↗ | $3.6K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Team Falcons @ 74¢ | Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs ↗ | $2.0K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?